Commentary by Brandon Alderete, Texas REALTORS® Director of Political Affairs
In a day marked by tragedy in South Texas, I’m sure many of you, like me, watched the election returns through blurred eyes, toggling back and forth between unspeakably horrible news from Uvalde and election results.
Turnout was abysmal, as predicted. Despite statewide contests on both ballots, turnout will end up at about 8 percent … just over 1.4 million voters (927k Repub, 480k Dem) voted. There are more than 17 million registered voters in Texas.
One Congressional incumbent, two statewide incumbents, and four legislative incumbents faced runoffs.
Both statewide incumbents (Paxton, Christian) were successful in securing their party’s nomination.
For three state incumbent lawmakers (Kacal, Rogers, and Klick), this was a good night, as they bucked recent history by surviving runoffs. Going into Tuesday, just seven of 34 incumbent legislators forced into runoffs have prevailed since 1996.
This is certainly notable, but in two districts (HDs 12 and 60), redistricting effectively rendered the seats more like open seats than runoffs, as more than 75 percent of the territory was “new” to the incumbent lawmakers.
The only unsuccessful state legislative incumbent was Rep. Phil Stephenson (42%), who fell to former Waller County Commissioner Stan Kitzman. Stephenson is the only non-paired, opposed incumbent to not receive TREPAC support in the 2022 cycle.
Rep.-elect Jolanda Jones in HD 147 was a fifth “incumbent” to face a runoff, but she has not yet been sworn in after her May 7 special election win.
Defend Texas Liberty (basically Empower Texans) spent tons of money to unseat Klick, Kacal, Stephenson, and Rogers, but batted 1 for 4. They had a bit more success in open seats, but overall, I think it’s fair to say that their messaging and tactics were not overly successful.
Here is a summary by the numbers:
REALTOR®- supported candidates (denoted with * below)
RPAC by the numbers – 100% success (1 win, recount likely)
TREPAC by the numbers – 81%-win rate (17 wins, 4 losses)
US Congress – Neither U.S. Senator was up for re-election in 2022. After redistricting, the Texas Congressional delegation picked up two House seats, taking it to 38 Representatives. There will be at least seven new members. Republicans will hold either 24, 25, or 26 of those 38 seats (Rs currently hold 23 of 36).
CD 28 – Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar* (50.2%) seems to have eked out another victory over progressive activist and attorney Jessica Cisneros. The margin in this race was razor thin – Cuellar won by just 177 votes out of more than 45,200 cast. Cisneros has not conceded the race, as mail-in ballots may still be tallied if they were postmarked by May 24 and received by May 25, and a recount seems likely.
CD 15 (open)– Michelle Vallejo appears to have earned the Democratic nomination by just 23 votes over Ruben Ramirez. There were 12,063 votes cast. If the results hold, she faces Republican Monica De la Cruz-Hernandez in November in this swing seat. RPAC has not yet taken a position in this race.
CD 30 (open) – State Rep. Jasmine Crockett sailed to victory over Jane Hope Hamilton. Crockett faces Republican James Rodgers in this heavily Democratic district. RPAC has thus far declined to take a position in this race.
Statewide
Lieutenant Governor – Mike Collier (55%) secured his second consecutive Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor by defeating outgoing state Rep. Michelle Beckley. Collier gets a rematch with incumbent Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who won the 2018 race with 51.3% - 46.5%. A Libertarian siphoned off 2.2%.
Attorney General – General Ken Paxton* more than doubles up on Commissioner George Bush, Jr. Paxton will face Democrat Rochelle Garza, who handily defeated Joe Jaworski in the Democratic runoff. Democrats see this as their best chance to win a statewide race, something that hasn’t happened in nearly 30 years.
Comptroller – Texas Democrats nominated Bryan accountant Janet Dudding (61%) to face incumbent Republican Comptroller Glenn Hegar.
Land Commissioner – Outgoing state Sen. Dawn Buckingham* (69%) cruises to the Republican nomination by defeating pastor and former RPT historian Dr. Tim Westley. Buckingham faces Democrat Jay Kleberg in November, after he won his runoff (52.9%) against Sandragrace Martinez.
Railroad Commissioner – Incumbent Commissioner Wayne Christian defeated upstart candidate and oil and gas attorney Sarah Stogner. Christian moves on to face Luke Warford in November. TREPAC has declined to take a position in the race.
Texas Senate – The Texas Senate will have at least six freshmen and the expected composition is 19Rs to 12Ds, however one South Texas district (SD 27, currently held by a Democrat) is technically in play, so it could be 20Rs and 11 Ds.
SD 24 – The return of Sen. Pete Flores* (59%), who defeated veteran Raul Reyes, is almost assured in this massive, geographically diverse district. Sen. Flores moves on to face Democratic nominee Kathy Jones-Hospod, a Cedar Park software engineer, in November. The district is about 61% Republican.
SD 27 – Democrat Morgan Lamantia* (57%) rode tremendous resources to a decisive victory over attorney Sara Stapleton-Barrera. Barrera loses her second consecutive SD 27 runoff. LaMantia will face Republican Adam Hinojosa in what is the only senate district that could be considered a swing seat (approximately 55% Democratic).
Texas House – The Texas House will have at least 26 freshmen lawmakers. The current composition of the House is 85Rs to 65Ds. Republicans could conceivably have up to 91 seats, but 87-89 is more likely.
HD 12 – Incumbent Rep. Kyle Kacal* (58%) overcame challenger Ben Bius, a Huntsville REALTOR® whose home county is new territory in HD 12. Rep. Kacal is unopposed in the general election.
HD 17 – Smithville City Council member and Rick Perry staffer Stan Gerdes* (51%) defeated Paul Pape. Gerdes rode 55% of the vote in Bastrop County – where Pape has been County Judge since 2013. Gerdes, a Republican, faces Democrat Madeline Eden in November in this 64% Republican district
HD 19 – Austin REALTOR® and former Austin City Council member Ellen Troxclair* (56%) hands Austin Police officer Justin Berry his second consecutive loss. Troxclair, now the Republican nominee, won all five counties and moves on to face Democrat Pam Baggett Wallis in this safe Republican seat.
HD 22 – Legislative staffer Christian “Manuel” Hayes* (51%) surged on Election Day to defeat Jefferson County Democratic Chair Joseph Trajan in a nail biter. Hayes moves on to face Republican Jacorian Randle in this 60% Democratic seat.
HD 23 – Former Republican SBOE member Terri Leo-Wilson (42%) defeated trial attorney Patrick Gurski*. Leo-Wilson over-performed in Galveston County, which was thought to be Gurski’s stronghold. Leo-Wilson faces educator Keith Henry in November in this 60% Republican seat.
HD 37 – Former legislative staffer Luis Villarreal (52%) defeated former SBOE member Ruben Cortez to earn the Democratic nomination. TREPAC has not yet taken a position in this swing seat. Villarreal will face Republican Janie Lopez in November.
HD 52 – Legislative staffer Caroline Harris* (50.6%) rode an Election Day surge to overtake self-funded tech entrepreneur Pat McGuiness. Harris will have to take her general election against Democrat Luis Echegaray seriously in this 54% Republican seat.
HD 60 - Rep. Glenn Rogers* (52%) earned re-election by dominating Palo Pinto and Stephens Counties, despite losing Parker County (new area, approximately 77% of the votes). Rogers will return to represent the district, as he is unopposed in the general election.
HD 61 – Police officer Frederick Frazier* (64%) dominated Paul Chabot in Collin County. Frazier, a Republican, faces Democratic nominee Sheena King in November. The district is about 57% Republican.
HD 63 – Weapons manufacturer Ben Bumgarner* (62%) wins easily over anti-transgender activist Jeff Younger to secure the Republican nomination. Bumgarner will have to take his general election against Democratic criminal psychologist Denise Wooten seriously in this 56% Republican district.
HD 70 – Community leader Jamee Jolly* (52%) earns the Republican nomination over Eric Bowlin. This swing seat will be a hot contest in November, as Jolly will face Democratic nominee and former legislative staffer Mihela Plesa (55%), who defeated trial attorney Cas Garcia Hernandez.
HD 73 – Former New Braunfels Mayor Barron Casteel* lost to Carrie Isaac (50.6%), wife of former State Rep. Jason Isaac. Isaac has a huge advantage over Democratic nominee and social worker Justin Calhoun in this 70% Republican district.
HD 76 – Dr. Suleman Lalani* (63%) handily defeated Vanesia Johnson in the newly created Fort Bend County district. Lalani, along with Salman Bhojani (in North Texas), are likely to become the first two Muslims ever elected to the Texas Legislature. Lalani will face Stafford chemical engineer Dan Matthews in this 60% Democratic district.
HD 84 – Commercial REALTOR® and former Lubbock County GOP Chair Carl Tepper* (59%) overcame a second-place finish on March 1 to easily defeat attorney David Glasheen, who loaned himself about $1.5 million. Tepper is unopposed in November.
HD 85 – Rep. Phil Stephenson was the only legislative incumbent to lose his runoff, falling to former Waller County Commissioner Stan Kitzman. TREPAC did not take a position in the race. Of note, Rep. Stephenson received no help from the Austin lobby, business groups, or Speaker Phelan. Gov. Abbott endorsed Kitzman, as well. Kitzman faces Democrat Larry Baggett in this 67% Republican district.
HD 91 – Chair Stephanie Klick* (54%) defies odds to overcome a 7-figure smear campaign to defeat David Lowe, whose controversial stances on abortion seemed to not resonate with HD 91 voters. Lowe has said he favors the death penalty for women who have an abortion. Rep. Klick will return to the Texas House, as she is unopposed in November.
HD 93 – Former Southlake Mayor Laura Hill* lost by a landslide to activist Nate Schatzline (65%). Mr. Schatzline, whose wife is a REALTOR®, now faces Democratic activist KC Chowdhury, but has a huge advantage in this 59% Republican district.
HD 100 – REALTOR® Venton Jones* (68%) sailed past former Dallas City Council member Sandra Crenshaw. Jones finished second on March 1, but ran a sophisticated campaign and faces only third-party opposition in this 85% Democratic district.
HD 114 – Former Congressman and House member John Bryant (57%) overcame a second-place finish on March 1 and will likely return to the Legislature by a surprising margin over Alexandra Guio. Bryant faces Republican real estate developer Mark Hajdu in this 67% Democratic district. TREPAC has not taken a position in this race.
HD 122 – Former San Antonio City Council member Elisa Chan* loses a heartbreaker to former Bexar County GOP Chair Mark Dorazio (55%). Dorazio will face personal trainer Angi Aramburu in November in this 59% Republican district.
HD 133 – Mano DeAyala (51%), an Abbott appointee to the Board of Criminal Justice and chair of Hispanic Republicans of Texas appears to have won a very close race over precinct chair and property manager Shelly Barineau. DeAyala faces education consultant Mohamad Maarouf in November in this 56% Republican district. TREPAC has not taken a position in this race.
HD 147 – Houston REALTOR® Danielle Keys-Bess fell just short of unseating newly elected Rep.-elect Jolanda Jones (53%). Jones will have the advantage of seniority, just behind with Rep. Erin Gamez (HD 38) among first-term lawmakers. Both women won special elections on May 7. TREPAC has not taken a position in this race.
Comments